This paper argues that the empirical trade-growth relationship should be modelled using a dynamic panel data approach and that it is best estimated with Blundell and Bond's (1999) system-GMM estimator. This procedure remedies some econometric problems such as regressor endogeneity, measurement...

The currently negotiated Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership between the EU and the United States of America will most likely affect countries, such as Norway which have close ties to the European production networks. Based on a CGE model, developed at the ifo institute, we...

Recent disruptions to global value chains (GVCs) have raised an important question: Can decoupling from GVCs increase a country’s welfare by reducing its exposure to foreign supply shocks? We use a quantitative trade model to simulate GVCs decoupling, defined as increased barriers to global...

Diese Studie befasst sich mit der Quantifizierung der ökonomischen Auswirkungen des Austritts des Vereinigten Königreichs (VK) aus der Europäischen Union (EU) ("Brexit") auf die deutsche und europäische Wirtschaft. Seit dem Brexit-Referendum vom 23. Juni 2016 herrscht über die Zukunft der...

Ein Gutachten des IfW Kiel im Auftrag der IMPULS-Stiftung des VDMA zeigt: Deutschlands Wohlstand wird entscheidend von der internationalen Arbeitsteilung getragen. Erschwert Deutschland in Reaktion auf die Coronakrise die Kooperation mit ausländischen Lieferanten, etwa um Lieferketten durch das...

We estimate the short-run trade effects of natural disasters using monthly trade data and data on the physical intensity of earthquakes and storms. We find large negative effects for heavily indebted poor, least developed or landlocked developing countries but only small effects for other...

In early 2020, the disease Covid-19 caused a drastic lockdown of the Chinese economy. We use a quantitative trade model with input-output linkages to gauge the effects of this adverse supply shock in China on the global economy through international trade and global value chains (GVCs). We find...