This study investigates usefulness of business tendency surveys in industrial sector for out-of-sample prediction of growth of industrial production in Russia. A special attention is paid to performance of survey-augmented models during the recent Great Recession 2008/2009. Using the real-time...

This study investigates usefulness of business tendency surveys in industrial sector for out-of-sample prediction of growth of industrial production in Russia. A special attention is paid to performance of survey-augmented models during the recent Great Recession 2008/2009. Using the real-time...

Business surveys of industrial enterprises have been conducted by the Gaidar Institute using a European harmonized method in monthly cycles since September 1992, covering the entire territory of the Russian Federation. The panel size is around 1,000 enterprises employing over 13% of industrial...

2017 has been marked as a year of slow recovery from the crisis of 2015–2016 in the Russian industry. The years of crisis were distinguished by three characteristics. First, there was no plunge in demand for industrial products and in output. Second, a moderate decline in these indicators was...

First June data about Russian industry demonstrate a more positive dynamics of demand and output than data obtained during previous “crisis” months. However, enterprises in their plans and projections are not ready so far to weather the slow rolling crisis, which they have managed to adapt...