Survey-based expectations are mostly used by monetary authorities for inflation forecasts and evaluation of the … study examined the predictive ability of business expectations survey (BES) inflation index on movements of inflation as … credibility of their inflation fighting policies. It is also an important link in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. This …

-cycle states. We show that forecasts for recessions are subject to a large negative systematic forecast error (forecasters … overestimate growth), while forecasts for recoveries are subject to a positive systematic forecast error. Forecasts made for … expansions have, if anything, a small systematic forecast error for large forecast horizons. When we link information about the …

-release data. Forecast revisions and forecast errors are analyzed, and the results show that the forecasts are not systematically … final forecast revision in the current quarter is generally downward biased for almost all countries. Overall, the … differences in mean forecast errors are minor when using real-time data or pseudo-real-time data and these differences do not …

Republic of Macedonia (NBRM) for short-term forecasting of inflation - Autoregressive integrated moving average models … models' out-of-sample forecasting performance for the period 2012 q3 to 2016 q2 by using a number of forecast evaluation … increases. Second, the disaggregated ARIMA model has the smallest forecasting errors. Third, majority of the forecast evaluation …

A forecasting exercise is presented to assess the predictive potential of a daily price index based on online prices … Global Markets, as a predictor for a measure of the monthly core inflation rate in Argentina, known as "resto IPCBA" and …, reveals a slight trend towards increased forecast accuracy as the daily variable approaches a full month for certain horizons. …