We analyze the quality of macroeconomic survey forecasts. Recent findings indicate that they are anchoring biased. This irrationality would challenge the results of a wide range of empirical studies, e.g., in asset pricing, volatility clustering or market liquidity, which rely on survey data to...

This paper provides evidence of confirmation bias by sell-side analysts in their earnings forecasts. We show that analysts tend to put higher weight on public information when the current forecast consensus is more consistent with their previous forecasts. Our results further suggest that the...

We investigate whether and to what extent aggregate earnings forecasts by sell-side analysts and forecasts of macroeconomic indicators by economists convey different information about the macroeconomy, and whether such differences have implications for forecast efficiency and the stock market....

This study investigates whether the properties of sell-side analysts' earnings forecasts are associated with the adverse macroeconomic conditions that exist at the time of their initial hire or major promotion. We find that analysts who begin their career in an economic recession are more...

Recent findings indicate that macroeconomic survey forecasts are anchoring biased and therefore are inefficient. However, despite highly significant test coefficients a bias adjustment does not improve forecasts' quality. We find that the cognitive bias is a statistical artifact because the...