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A self-organizing map analysis of survey-based agents' expectations before impending shocks for model selection : the case of the 2008 financial crisis

Claveria, Oscar; Monte, Enric; Torra, Salvador - In: International economics : a journal published by CEPII … 146 (2016), pp. 40-58

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011623524

Economic turning point forecasting using the fuzzy neural network and non-overlap area distribution measurement method

Soo Han Chai; Lim, Joon Shik - In: The Korean economic review 23 (2007) 1, pp. 111-130

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003727107

Konjunkturprognosen für Bundesländer setzen Verbesserung der Datensituation voraus

Kholodilin, Konstantin A.; Kooths, Stefan; … - In: DIW Wochenbericht 75 (2008) 24, pp. 318-325

Die geplante Stärkung der Eigenverantwortlichkeit der Länder im Zuge der Föderalismusreformen wird zu einem erhöhten Bedarf an Konjunkturprognosen für Bundesländer führen. Während in Deutschland für die Konjunkturbeobachtung auf gesamtstaatlicher Ebene Quartalsdaten zur Verfügung...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011601832

Länderprognosen: sind Verbundmodelle ein Ausweg aus der Datendürre?: Fünf Fragen an Stefan Kooths

Wittenberg, Erich; Kooths, Stefan - In: DIW Wochenbericht 75 (2008) 24, pp. 319

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011601833

Industrieproduktion geht leicht zurück

Lucke, Dorothea - In: DIW Wochenbericht 75 (2008) 48, pp. 752-761

Nach Jahren überaus kräftigen Wachstums, ist die Industrie in diesem Jahr in die konjunkturelle Abschwungphase eingetreten und wird deshalb im Jahresdurchschnitt 2008 nur noch ein Wachstum von 1,8 Prozent erreichen. Ursächlich hierfür sind vor allem die sich abschwächende Weltkonjunktur und...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011601921

Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data

Diron, Marie - 2006

Economic policy makers, international organisations and private-sector forecasters commonly use short-term forecasts of real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An assessment of the reliability of such tools and of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604668

Forecasting inflation and tracking monetary policy in the euro area: does national information help?

Cristadoro, Riccardo; Venditti, Fabrizio; Saporito, Giuseppe - 2008

The ECB objective is set in terms of year on year growth rate of the Euro area HICP. Nonetheless, a good deal of attention is given to national data by market analysts when they try to anticipate monetary policy moves. In this paper we use the Generalized Dynamic Factor model to develop a set of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604946

Should quarterly government finance statistics be used for fiscal surveillane in Europe?

Pedregal, Diego J.; Pérez, Javier J. - 2008

content and its potential use for fiscal forecasting and monitoring purposes. The models are estimated with annual and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604983

Putting the New Keynesian DSGE model to the real-time forecasting test

Kolasa, Marcin; Rubaszek, Michał; Skrzypczyński, Paweł - 2009

. Nevertheless, their forecasting properties are still barely explored. We fill this gap by comparing the quality of real … priors from a DSGE model. We show that the analyzed DSGE model is relatively successful in forecasting the US economy in the … accurate short-term forecasts for interest rates. Conditional on experts' now casts, however, the forecasting power of the DSGE …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605156

Real-Time Measures of the Output Gap and Fiscal Policy Stance

Virkola, Tuomo - 2014

This paper studies real-time measures of the output gap and fiscal policy stance estimates for EU countries. We construct a comprehensive real-time data set on fiscal forecasts and study whether there are systematic differences between the European Commission and IMF estimates of the output gap...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012037657

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