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Forecasting the Macroeconomy : Analysts versus Economists
Hann, Rebecca N. - 2012
implications for forecast efficiency and the stock market. We find that the two sets of forecasts strongly covary over the 1984 to … aggregate earnings, the converse is not true. Additional tests suggest that analysts underreact to economists' negative forecast … revisions (i.e., aggregate earnings forecast errors are predictably more negative following economists' downward forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013096055
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Recession Analysts and Conservative Forecasting
Clement, Michael B. - 2014
find that their forecast properties are associated with the adverse macroeconomic conditions at the time of initial hire or …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013063317
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Confirmation Bias in Analysts’ Response to Consensus Forecasts
Cai, Huan; Yao, Tong; Zhang, Xiaodi - 2022
analysts tend to put higher weight on public information when the current forecast consensus is more consistent with their …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014239800
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Confirmation Bias in Analysts’ Response to Consensus Forecasts
Cai, Huan - 2020
analysts tend to put higher weight on public information when the current forecast consensus is more consistent with their …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012823357
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Does central bank staff beat private forecasters? : conference paper
Shagi, Makram el-; Giesen, Sebastian; Jung, Alexander - 2013
and forecast stability for the US, we find that the driving forces behind the narrowing of the information advantage of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010339294
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Irrationality or efficiency of macroeconomic survey forecasts? : implications from the anchoring bias test
Hess, Dieter; Orbe, Sebastian - 2011
We analyze the quality of macroeconomic survey forecasts. Recent findings indicate that they are anchoring biased. This irrationality would challenge the results of a wide range of empirical studies, e.g., in asset pricing, volatility clustering or market liquidity, which rely on survey data to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009270413
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Irrationality or Efficiency of Macroeconomic Survey Forecasts? Implications from the Anchoring Bias Test
Hess, Dieter - 2012
Recent findings indicate that macroeconomic survey forecasts are anchoring biased and therefore are inefficient. However, despite highly significant test coefficients a bias adjustment does not improve forecasts' quality. We find that the cognitive bias is a statistical artifact and that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013115740
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Irrationality or Efficiency of Macroeconomic Survey Forecasts? Implications from the Anchoring Bias Test
Hess, Dieter - 2012
Recent findings indicate that macroeconomic survey forecasts are anchoring biased and therefore are inefficient. However, despite highly significant test coefficients a bias adjustment does not improve forecasts' quality. We find that the cognitive bias is a statistical artifact because the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013100577
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Platow-Prognose
Frankfurt, M. : Platow; früher: Frankfurt, M. : Verl. …; … - Nachgewiesen 1978(1977) -
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000486409
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Short-term forecast of Ukrainian economy including shadow sector using causal simulation model
Vasylenko, Yuri V. - In: Mokslo darbai / Vilniaus Universitetas 99 (2020) 1, pp. 131-145
various types of legal and shadow economic activities and their interrelations. The model is used to forecast the whole (legal … Ukrainian authorities take an active position in the implementation of the developed forecast for the economic development of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012264616