In this paper, we document the forecasting performance of estimated basic dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and compare this to extended versions which consider alternative expectation formation assumptions and financial frictions. We also show how standard model features,...

This study analyzes the performance of the IMF World Economic Outlook forecasts for world output and the aggregates of both the advanced economies and the emerging and developing economies. With a focus on the forecast for the current and the next year, we examine whether IMF forecasts can be...

This study analyzes the performance of the IMF World Economic Outlook forecasts for world output and the aggregates of both the advanced economies and the emerging and developing economies. With a focus on the forecast for the current and the next year, we examine whether IMF forecasts can be...

This study analyses the performance of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook output forecasts for the world and for both the advanced economies and the emerging and developing economies. With a focus on the forecast for the current year and the next year, we examine the...

Economic forecasts are an important element of rational economic policy both on the federal and on the local or regional level. Solid budgetary plans for government expenditures and revenues rely on efficient macroeconomic projections. However, official data on quarterly regional GDP in Germany...

Gegenstand der vorliegenden Studie sind die konjunkturellen Aussichten in den Ländern Deutschland, Brasilien, Italien, Polen, USA und Japan für den Rest des Jahres 2012 und für die Jahre 2013 und 2014. Die Weltwirtschaft befindet sich im Herbst 2013 in einer Schwächephase. Risiken für die...

Das Gutachten untersucht, ob die IWF-Prognosen für den Zuwachs des Bruttoinlandsprodukts in der Welt und in der Gruppe der Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländer mithilfe von gängigen Frühindikatoren verbessert werden können. Dabei zeigt sich, dass die Prognosegüte der IWF-Prognosen mit...