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We provide a critical review of the literature on early warning indicators of economics crises and propose methods to overcome several pitfalls of the previous contributions. We use a quarterly panel of 40 EU and OECD countries for the period 1970-2010. As the response variable, we construct a...
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We construct and explore a new quarterly dataset covering crisis episodes in 40 developed countries over 1970-2010. First, we examine stylized facts of banking, debt, and currency crises. Using panel vector autoregression, we confirm that currency and debt crises are typically preceded by...
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