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This paper examines return predictability when the investor is uncertain about the right state variables. A novel feature of the model averaging approach used in this paper is to account for finite-sample bias of the coefficients in the predictive regressions. Drawing on an extensive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003728591
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009239675
We use futures instead of forward rates to study the complete maturity spectrum of the forward premium puzzle from two days to six months. At short maturities the slope coefficient is positive, but these turn negative as the maturity increases to the monthly level. Futures data allow us to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013119324
The popular Nelson-Siegel (1987) yield curve is routinely fit to cross sections of intra-country bond yields, and …, modeling a potentially large set of country yield curves in a framework that allows for both global and country …-specific factors. In an empirical analysis of term structures of government bond yields for the Germany, Japan, the U.K. and the U …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012759705
The popular Nelson-Siegel (1987) yield curve is routinely fit to cross sections of intra-country bond yields, and …, modeling a potentially large set of country yield curves in a framework that allows for both global and country …-specific factors. In an empirical analysis of term structures of government bond yields for the Germany, Japan, the U.K. and the U …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465058
We use futures instead of forward rates to study the complete maturity spectrum of the forward premium puzzle from two days to six months. At short maturities the slope coefficient is positive, but these turn negative as the maturity increases to the monthly level. Futures data allow us to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013141467
. Consequently, since its launch as a store of value and unit of account, there has been a clear convergence between the yield of … on the yield spread of French 10-year bonds, relative to the German Bund of the same maturity for the period January 1999 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011500193
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002063628
This paper explores empirically the link between French equities returns Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the state of financial markets cycle. The econometric analysis is based on a simple vector autoregression setup. Using quarterly data from 1970Q4 to 2008Q3, it turns out that the k-year VaR of French...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003824669
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001475128