We study domestic and international drivers of long-term interest rates using newly compiled financial market data for Switzerland starting in 1852. We use a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model to estimate long-term trends in nominal interest rates, exchange rate growth, and...

There has recently been considerable interest in the potential adverse effects associated with excessive uncertainty in energy futures markets. Theoretical models of investment under uncertainty predict that increased uncertainty will tend to induce firms to delay production and investment....

Using more than two decades of industry data, the authors profile the external orientation of manufacturing industries in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Japan. They use the term quot;external orientationquot; to describe the potential exposure of an industry's revenues and...

Whereas previous studies have focused on the causal relation between nominal interest rates, this paper examines causal relationships between real rates for the United States and six other countries. Based on evidence from our full sample, we find that U.S. and foreign interest rates are not...