This paper investigates the predictive accuracy of two alternative forecasting strategies, namely the forecast and information combinations. Theoretically, there should be no role for forecast combinations in a world where information sets can be instantaneously and costlessly combined. However,...

This paper introduces the new Monthly Index of Business Activity (MIBA) model of the Banque de France for forecasting France's GDP. As the previous versions, the model relies exclusively on data from the monthly business survey (EMC) conducted by the Banque de France. However, several major...

The paper develops a model for forecasting inflation in France. As this model has to be integrated in the Eurosystem projection exercises, the projections are conditional to specific assumptions and must be consistent with the Macroeconomic projection exercise of the Banque de France. The...

We analyze French GDP revisions and we investigate the rationality of preliminary announcements of GDP. We consider nonlinearities, taking the form of business cycle asymmetry and time changes, and their effect on both unconditional moments of revisions and the rationality of announcements. We...

In this paper, we present an updated version of the reference model used at Banque de France to forecast inflation: MAPI (Model for Analysis and Projection of Inflation). While the conceptual framework of the model remains very close to its initial version, our update takes stock of three...

This paper proposes a new way of computing a coincident indicator for economic activity in France using data from business surveys. We use the generalized dynamic factor model not; la Forni and others (2000) to extract common components from a large number of survey observations. The results...

We present a model for hourly electricity load forecasting based on stochastically time-varying processes that are designed to account for changes in customer behaviour and in utility production efficiencies. The model is periodic: it consists of different equations and different parameters for...

This paper presents a revised version of the model OPTIM, proposed by Irac and Sédillot (2002), used at the Banque de France in order to predict French GDP quarterly growth rate, for the current and next quarters. The model is designed to be used on a monthly basis by integrating monthly...