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Using local administrative data from 1826 to 1936, we document the evolution of crime rates in 19th century France and … we estimate the impact of a negative income shock on crime. Our identification strategy exploits the phylloxera crisis … this shock to identify its impact on property and violent crime rates, as well as minor offences. Our estimates suggest …
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show that in the cross-section dimension, crime and unemployment are positively associated. Second, we find that increases … in youth unemployment induce increases in crime. Using the predicted industrial structure to instrument unemployment, we … show that this effect is causal for burglaries, thefts, and drug offences. To combat crime, it appears thus that all …
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This paper exploits the collective pardon granted to individuals incarcerated in French prisons on the 14th of July, 1996 (Bastille Day) to identify the effect of collective sentence reductions on recidivism. The collective pardon generated a very significant discontinuity in the relationship...
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