We use a long series of annual data that span over 100 years to examine the relationship between output growth and output growth uncertainty in five European countries. Using the GARCH methodology to proxy output growth uncertainty, we obtain two important results: First, more uncertainty about...

This paper examines how to improve tactical asset allocation by better risk management instead of concentrating on maximising returns. This is achieved by using forecasts of the time- varying conditional covariance matrix of returns obtained from a new specification of the multivariate GARCH...

This paper examines the optimal allocation each period of an internationally diversified portfolio from the different points of view of a UK and a US investor. A multivariate GARCH model is used to estimate the conditional covariance matrix of returns, and to rebalance their portfolios each...