This paper presents an empirical analysis of volatility in GDP real growth rates for Portugal over the period 1960-2010. The objectives of this paper are threefold: (1) to assess the occurrence of “the Great Moderation” in Portugal and identify the timings of volatility changes; (2) to...

This paper analysis the vulnerability of the OECD member states to external shocks by estimating the degree of asymmetric effects from positive and negative shocks. We use asymmetric conditional heteroscedasticity models with endogenously determined regime changes in a context of progressive...