We consider the design and estimation of quadratic term structure models. We start with a list of stylized facts on interest rates and interest rate derivatives, classified into three layers: (1) general statistical properties, (2) forecasting relations, and (3) conditional dynamics. We then...

We propose new approaches to test for spanning in the return and stochastic discount factor mean-variance frontiers, which assess if either the centred or uncentred mean and cost representing portfolios are shared by the initial and extended sets of assets. We show that our proposed tests are...

We propose new approaches to test for spanning in the return and stochastic discount factor mean-variance frontiers, which assess if either the centred or uncentred mean and cost representing portfolios are shared by the initial and extended sets of assets. We show that our proposed tests are...

In this paper we estimate risk-neutral probability density functions from EUR/HUF currency options using the Malz (1997) method. First, we compare different option-based indicators. We present so-called 'shortcut' indicators, i.e. indicators that can be calculated directly, without the...

In this paper we estimate risk-neutral probability density functions from EUR/HUF currency options using the Malz (1997) method. First, we compare different option-based indicators. We present so-called 'shortcut' indicators, i.e. indicators that can be calculated directly, without the...

This paper investigates market expectations of future equity prices using the probability distribution and the moments implied in equity option prices. We first conduct, without assuming a particular model, a nonparametric analysis of the development of market expectations in four major markets...

We develop generalised indirect inference procedures that handle equality and inequality constraints on the auxiliary model parameters. We also show that the asymptotic efficiency of such estimators can never decrease by explicitly taking into account Lagrange multipliers associated with...

We investigate the effect of uncertainty on investment. We employ a unique dataset of 25000 Greek firms' balance sheets for 14 years covering the period before and after the eurozone crisis. A dynamic factor model is employed to proxy uncertainty. The investment performance of 14 sectors is...

We investigate the effect of uncertainty on investment. We employ a unique dataset of 25000 Greek firms' balance sheets for 14 years covering the period before and after the eurozone crisis. A dynamic factor model is employed to proxy uncertainty. The investment performance of 14 sectors is...

This paper proposes a novel approach to the combination of conditional covariance matrix forecasts based on the use of the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). It is shown how the procedure can be generalized to deal with large dimensional systems by means of a two-step strategy. The finite...