Suppose Rational Expectations Equilibriums (REE) that are inferred at time t materialize at time t+1. This study provides formal theoretical and empirical evidence that performance effects of skewness preference simultaneously can be evidence for demonstrations of full rationality (expertise),...

We use novel data on individual activity in a sports betting market to study the effect of past performance sequences on individual behavior in a real market. The revelation of fundamental values in this market enables us to disentangle whether behavior is caused by sentiment or by superior...

The betting market for the Women's National Basketball Association (WNBA) is a thin financial market, which does not attract much interest from sports bettors. Given these characteristics, it is possible that profitable wagering strategies could exist for informed bettors of the WNBA. Using...

There is little research on whether new information is correctly synthesized in prediction markets. Previous studies have found evidence consistent with, but have not proved, gambler misperceptions on the existence of momentum effects in the NBA. I use novel momentum measures that, unlike prior...

Previous research in finance has found evidences of both overreaction and underreaction to unanticipated events, but has yet to explain why investors overreact to certain events while underreacting to others. In this paper, we hypothesize that while market participants generally underreact to...

This paper addresses findings from previous asset pricing research that reveal lottery-like stocks are mispriced. This conclusion, however, relies on asset pricing models which might suffer from the joint hypothesis problem: That is, abnormal returns can reflect market inefficiencies, a bad...

This paper examines whether the outcome bias harms price efficiency in betting exchange markets. In soccer, the match outcome is an unreliable performance measure, as it underestimates the high level of randomness involved in the sport. If bettors overestimate the importance of past match...

Betting markets have been frequently used as a natural laboratory to test the efficient market hypothesis and to obtain insights especially for financial markets. We add to this literature in analyzing the velocity and accuracy in which market expectations adapt to an exogenous shock: the...

This paper examines how gambling-motivated trading affects aggregate financial market outcomes. Using a unique global gambling data set covering 39 countries, we show that the dollar volume of stock market gambling is at least 3.5 times the combined volume of “traditional” gambling outlets...