There is a well-established literature on separately testing the prediction power of different betting market settings. This paper provides an inter-market comparison of the forecasting accuracy between bookmakers and a major betting exchange. Employing a dataset covering all football matches...

We show that a combined bet at the bookmaker and at the bet exchange market yields a guaranteed positive return in 19.2% of the matches in the top-five European soccer leagues. Moreover, we find that all considered bookmakers frequently offered arbitrage positions, and that they experienced, on...