Several countries at the core of the Euro area have experienced coincident business cycles during the most recent decades, while the Danish economy seemed detached from these cycles during the 1980's and part of the 1990's. To a large degree, the decoupling of the Danish economy reflects...

The literature on business cycle synchronization in Europe frequently presumes an alleged ‘core‒periphery’ pattern without providing empirical verification of the underlying cyclical (dis)similarities or the supposed but unobservable ‘European business cycle(s)’. To provide a...

We propose a new nonlinear classification method based on a Bayesian "sum-of-trees" model, the Bayesian Additive Classification Tree (BACT), which extends the Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) method into the classification context. Like BART, the BACT is a Bayesian nonparametric additive...

Cycles play an important role when analyzing market phenomena. In many markets, both overlaying (weekly, seasonal or business cycles) and time-varying cycles (e.g. asymmetric lengths of peak and off peak or variation of business cycle length) exist simultaneously. Identification of these market...