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) and keep updating with statistical decision theoretic and game theoretic reasoning until a convergence of conjectures is … set of games than current Nash Equilibrium based games theory, including games with inaccurate observations, games with … games analyzed by the current games theory, it generates far lesser equilibriums and normally generates only a unique …
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The paper reports laboratory experiments on a day-to-day route choice game with two routes. Subjects had to choose between a main road M and a side road S. The capacity was greater for the main road. 18 subjects participated in each session. In equilibrium the number of subjects is 12 on M and 6...
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I present a behavioural model of network formation with positive network externalities in which individuals have preferences for being part of a clique. The behavioural model leads to an associated supermodular (Topkis, 1979) normal form game. I show that the behavioural model converges to the...
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Over a century ago, Oliver Wendell Holmes invited scholars to look at law through the lens of probability theory: ‘The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013067657
We estimate a Bayesian learning model with heterogeneity aimed at explaining expert forecast disagreement and its evolution over horizons. Disagreement is postulated to have three components due to differences in: i) the initial prior beliefs, ii) the weights attached on priors, and iii)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012729485
This paper develops a framework for estimating Quantal Response Equilibrium models from experimental data using Bayesian techniques. Bayesian techniques offer some advantages over the more commonly-used maximum likelihood approach: (i) the accuracy of the posterior simulation is limited by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013245678