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Erkenntnis einer umfangreichen Retrospektive zur Theorie der Währungskrisen. Mit Hilfe der Computer-Software SPSS 12.0.1 und …
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We study forecast dispersion in a finite-player forecasting game modeled as an aggregate game with payoff externalities … forecast from the average forecast; and with a finite number of agents, the agents can strategically in influence that average … find that when each agent prefers to be close to the average forecast, the presence of strategic manipulation of the …
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Reputational herding has been considered as a driving force behind economic and financial forecasts clustered around consensus values. Strategic coordination can consequently explain poor performances of prediction markets as resulting from the distinct incentives that forecasters face. While...
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Despite normative predictions from economics and biology, unrelated strangers will often develop the trust necessary to reap gains from one-shot economic exchange opportunities. This appears to be especially true when declared intentions and emotions can be cheaply communicated. Perhaps even...
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