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Evolution of Forecast Disagreement in a Bayesian Learning Model
Lahiri, Kajal - 2007
We estimate a Bayesian learning model with heterogeneity aimed at explaining expert forecast disagreement and its evolution over horizons. Disagreement is postulated to have three components due to differences in: i) the initial prior beliefs, ii) the weights attached on priors, and iii)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012729485
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Adverse selection in the annuity market with sequential and simultaneous insurance demand
Brunner, Johann K.; Pech, Susanne - 2002 - Revised Version
This paper investigates the effect of adverse selection on the private annuity market in a model with two periods of retirement and two types of individuals, who differ in their life expectancy. In order to introduce the existence of limited-time pension insurance, we consider a model where for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009750235
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Adverse selection in the annuity market when payoffs vary over the time of retirement
Brunner, Johann K.; Pech, Susanne - 2000 - Revised Version
This paper investigates the effect of adverse selection and price competition on the private annuity market in a model with two retirement periods. In this framework annuity companies can offer contracts with different payoffs over the periods of retirement. Varying the time structure of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009750561
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Adverse selection in the annuity market with sequential and simultaneous insurance demand
Brunner, Johann K.; Pech, Susanne - 2002
This paper investigates the effect of adverse selection on the private annuity market in a model with two periods of retirement. In order to introduce the existence of limited-time pension insurance, we assume that for each period of retirement separate contracts can be purchased. Demand for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011541030
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A Bayesian Model of the Litigation Game
Guerra-Pujol, F. E. - 2014
Over a century ago, Oliver Wendell Holmes invited scholars to look at law through the lens of probability theory: ‘The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013067657
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Bayesian Inference for Quantal Response Equilibrium in Normal-Form Games
Bland, James R. - 2021
This paper develops a framework for estimating Quantal Response Equilibrium models from experimental data using Bayesian techniques. Bayesian techniques offer some advantages over the more commonly-used maximum likelihood approach: (i) the accuracy of the posterior simulation is limited by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013245678
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A Bayesian Theory of Games : An Analysis of Strategic Interactions with Statistical Decision Theoretic Foundation
Teng, Jimmy - 2012
set of games than current Nash Equilibrium based games theory, including games with inaccurate observations, games with … games analyzed by the current games theory, it generates far lesser equilibriums and normally generates only a unique … equilibrium. It also resolves inconsistencies in equilibrium results by different solution concepts in current games theory …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014172228
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Is Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium a Subset of Nash Equilibrium?
Teng, Jimmy - 2013
Perfect Bayesian equilibrium is not a subset of Nash equilibrium. Perfect Bayesian equilibrium requires players to have beliefs that are consistent with the equilibrium strategies of other players. Nash equilibrium does not explicitly specify the beliefs of the players. However, the default...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014158965
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Analyzing Noisy Observation Game with Bayesian Iterative Conjectures Approach
Teng, Jimmy - 2012
This paper uses Bayesian equilibrium by iterative conjectures approach to solve a noisy sequential game, that is, a sequential game with inaccurate observation clouded by noise. Bayesian equilibrium by iterative conjectures requires players to form conjectures about the strategies of the other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014163813
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Refining Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium by Bayesian Iterative Conjectures Algorithm
Teng, Jimmy - 2012
This paper studies a new refinement for Perfect Bayesian equilibrium, Bayesian equilibrium by iterative conjectures (BEIC). BEIC requires players to make predictions, starting from first order uninformative predictive distribution functions (or conjectures) and keep updating with statistical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014164319