This paper presents evidence that indicates that U.S. interest rate policy during most of the 1980s can be described by a reaction function in which the federal funds rate rises if real GDP rises above trend GDP, if actual inflation accelerates, or if the long-term bond rate rises. Money growth...

Market participants recognize two opposing effects of money supply growth on interest rates: a temporary liquidity effect and a permanent expectations effect. That the latter dominates in the long run is clear — a sustained increase in money growth causes proportionally higher interest rates...