In this joint Bank of England and Behavioural Insights Team study, we test the effectiveness of different approaches to central bank communications. Using an online experiment with a representative sample of the UK population, we measure how changes to the Bank of England's summaries of the...

This paper presents a simple model of the long-term interest rate. The model represents John Maynard Keynes's conjecture that the central bank's actions influence the long-term interest rate primarily through the short-term interest rate, while allowing for other important factors. It relies on...

We distill tone from a huge assortment of NASDAQ articles to examine the predictive power of media-expressed tone in single-stock option markets and equity markets. We find that (1) option markets are impacted by media tone; (2) option variables predict stock returns along with tone; (3) option...

This paper examines the empirical literature on individual equity options, discussing results in areas of consensus, showing findings in areas of disagreement and providing a guide for future research (especially highlighting analyses that cannot be performed with index options). Key topics...

We find that option expensiveness, as measured by delta-hedged option returns, is higher for low-ESG stocks, indicating that investors pay a premium in the option market to hedge ESG-related uncertainty. We estimate this ESG premium to be about 0.3% per month. All three components of ESG...

Using panel data models, we analyze the flypaper effects-whether intergovernmental fiscal transfers or states' own income determine expenditure commitments - on ecological fiscal spending in India. The econometric results show that the unconditional fiscal transfers, rather than the states' own...

There are several widely used benchmark models of the long-term interest rate in quantitative finance. However, these models have yet to incorporate Keynes's valuable insights about interest rate dynamics. The Keynesian approach to interest rate dynamics can be readily incorporated in the...

This paper presents multifactor Keynesian models of the long-term interest rate. In recent years there have been a proliferation of empirical studies based on the Keynesian approach to interest rate modeling. However, standard multifactor models of the long-term interest rate in quantitative...

Our study demonstrates how agents' expectations can interact dynamically with monetary and fiscal policy at the zero lower bound. We study expectation formation near the zero lower bound using a learning-to-forecast laboratory experiment under alternative policy regimes. In our experimental...

We develop an experimental production economy to study the general equilibrium and welfare effects of speculation and stabilization policies. Participants playing the role of household-investors interact in labor, output, and, in some treatments, asset markets. Without the ability to trade...