(underpredict) inflation at intermediate forecast horizons when inflation is below (above) target. The magnitude of the bias is …We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic …

(underpredict) inflation at intermediate forecast horizons when inflation is below (above) target. The magnitude of the bias is …We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic …

We test for state-dependent bias in the European Central Bank's inflation projections. We show that the ECB tends to … underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated threshold of 1.8%. The bias is … errors in the exogenous assumptions on interest rates, exchange rates or oil prices. The state-dependent bias may be …

Since 1984, the FOMC has often issued directives for monetary policy that indicate a bias toward easing or tightening … after a directive is issued, the results indicate that a bias to ease predicts a significantly lower average funds rate and … a bias to tighten forecasts a significantly higher average funds rate. If policy is measured qualitatively by whether …

the current policy rate. We explore whether this "forecast adherence" has influenced the monetary policies of the Reserve …