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Using a unique data set of individual professional forecasts, we document disagreement about the future path of monetary policy, particularly at longer horizons. The stark differences in short rate forecasts imply strong disagreement about the risk-return trade-off of longer-term bonds....
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Die umfangreiche empirische Literatur zur Gültigkeit der Erwartungstheorie der Zinsstruktur in den USA hat einen "U … werden in Kapitel 2 unterschiedliche Theorien der Zinsstruktur dargestellt und die ökonometrisch-methodischen Testansätze der … diskutiert und mittels eines multivariaten ARCH-Ansatzes zeitvariable Risikoprämien in der deutschen Zinsstruktur nachgewiesen …
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We present estimates of the term structure of inflation expectations, derived from an affine model of real and nominal yield curves. The model features stochastic covariation of inflation with the real pricing kernel, enabling us to extract a time-varying inflation risk premium. We fit the model...
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