This paper examines whether the negative association between aggregate earnings and returns is explained by the monetary policy news in aggregate earnings. Using Federal funds futures data to construct a measure of policy news, we find that aggregate earnings convey information about the Fed's...

There is much discussion about derivatives at central banks. The main focus is on questions about the impact of the growing use of derivative instruments on the stability of the financial markets and the effectiveness ofmonetary policy measures. Irrespective ofthe answers, the information...

We study the response of stock prices to monetary policy, distinguishing effects of exogenous shocks from "Delphic" shocks that reveal the Federal Reserve's macroeconomic forecasts. To decompose monetary policy surprises into these separate components we construct a measure of Federal Reserve...