theory to model these inference exercises and to assess their general possibility of success. So, is it possible to infer …

and sunspots by establishing the existence of "statistical sunspots" in models that have a unique rational expectations … factors (e.g., sunspots, judgment, expectations shocks, etc.). In equilibrium, agents attribute, in a self‐fulfilling way …, some of the serial correlation observed in data to extrinsic noise, i.e., statistical sunspots. This leads to sunspot …