This paper aims to improve the understanding of U.S. inflation dynamics by separating out structural from cyclical effects using frequency domain techniques. Most empirical studies of inflation dynamics do not distinguish between secular and cyclical movements, and we show that such a...

This paper aims to improve the understanding of U.S. inflation dynamics by separating out structural from cyclical effects using frequency domain techniques. Most empirical studies of inflation dynamics do not distinguish between secular and cyclical movements, and we show that such a...

We investigate the drivers of dynamics of major U.S. FX bilaterals. We first construct a novel measure of FX risk premiums using Consensus exchange rate forecasts. We then use VAR analysis to show that (i) risk premium shocks play a key role in driving dynamics of the major U.S. FX bilaterals;...

We investigate the drivers of dynamics of major U.S. FX bilaterals. We first construct a novel measure of FX risk premiums using Consensus exchange rate forecasts. We then use VAR analysis to show that (i) risk premium shocks play a key role in driving dynamics of the major U.S. FX bilaterals;...

The paper assesses the current monetary policy stance of the European Central Bank (ECB). It analyses the factors driving inflation dynamics in the euro area, drawing comparisons with the United States (US). It also analyses inflation differentials across euro-area countries, including the role...

The paper assesses the current monetary policy stance of the European Central Bank (ECB). It analyses the factors driving inflation dynamics in the euro area, drawing comparisons with the United States (US). It also analyses inflation differentials across euro-area countries, including the role...

Belize has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to a deep recession and worsened fiscal and external positions from already weak levels. The opposition People's United Party won the November 2020 elections by a wide margin, which gives the new government a unique opportunity to jump...

The Gambia is experiencing a second wave of COVID-19 cases. The vaccination campaign started in early March 2021, but the pace is slow, due to vaccine availability and hesitancy. Presidential and parliamentary elections are planned for December 2021 and April 2022, respectively