Every currency crisis of recent years has been accompanied by a migration of billions of short-term money. Both experts and laymen have again and again been amazed at the speed at which, at relatively short notice, these enormous sums could be mobilised.

This paper applies the Campbell-Shiller (1988) methodology to estimate a price dividend model with volatility and inflation risk, extending existing models in this field. The model fits the data well over the period 1979-2002 for the Euro Area, but less so for the U.S. The latter is interpreted...