Every currency crisis of recent years has been accompanied by a migration of billions of short-term money. Both experts and laymen have again and again been amazed at the speed at which, at relatively short notice, these enormous sums could be mobilised.

We estimate a small-scale, structural general equilibrium model of a small open economy using Bayesian methods. Our main focus is the conduct of monetary policy in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the U.K., as measured by nominal interest rate rules. We consider generic Taylor-type rules,...