We investigate the credibility of inflation targeting (IT) central banks (CBs) by estimating perceived inflation targets of the financial markets. We calculate financial markets' beliefs about the inflation targets of 24 IT countries. Then, we analyze whether the financial markets' beliefs about...

We estimate perceptions about the Fed's monetary policy rule from micro data on professional forecasters. The perceived rule varies significantly over time, with important consequences for monetary policy and bond markets. Over the monetary policy cycle, easings are perceived to be quick and...

We estimate perceptions about the Fed’s monetary policy rule from panel data on professional forecasts of interest rates and macroeconomic conditions. The perceived dependence of the federal funds rate on economic conditions is time-varying and cyclical: high during tightening episodes but low...