We study how the use of judgement or “add-factors” in macroeconomic forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We isolate conditions under which new phenomena, which we call exuberance equilibria, can exist in standard macroeconomic...

Monetary policy in the euro area is conducted within a multi-country, multicultural, and multi-lingual context involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand and to anticipate monetary policy by the ECB? Using a...

Realwirtschaftliche Indikatoren deuten daraufhin, dass die Schwächephase der deutschen Konjunktur im Früh-sommer ausläuft. So werden im Baugewerbe die witterungsbedingten Produktionsausfälle aufgeholt, und Aktivi-täten zur Beseitigung der Hochwasserschäden kommen hinzu. Auch der private...

Die Europäische Währungsunion (EWU) soll am 1. Januar 1999 starten. Nicht auszuschließen ist, daß die Kriterien des Maastrichter Vertrags bei der Entscheidung über den Teilnehmerkreis Anfang 1998 großzügig gehandhabt werden und damit die Zahl der Teilnehmer hoch sein wird. Eine strikte...

Monetary policy in the euro area is conducted within a multi-country, multi-cultural, and multi-lingual context involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand and to anticipate monetary policy by the ECB? Using a...

This paper contributes to the debate on the role of money in monetary policy by analyzing the information content of money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of structural and empirical models in a consistent framework using...

This paper investigates the information content of the Norges Bank's key rate projections. Wavelet spectrum estimates provide the basis for estimating jump probabilities of short- and long-term interest rates on monetary policy announcement days before and after the introduction of key rate...

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has been the first central bank that began to publish interest rate projections in order to improve its guidance of monetary policy. This paper provides new evidence on the role of interest rate projections for market expectations about future short-term...