Using a standard dynamic general equilibrium model, we show that the interaction of staggered nominal contracts with hyperbolic discounting leads to inflation having significant long-run effects on real variables. -- Inflation ; unemployment ; Phillips curve ; nominal inertia ; monetary policy ;...

In this paper, we build a publicly-available database of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indicators based on the methodology proposed by Azqueta-Gavaldón, Hirschbühl, Onorante and Saiz (2023), which uses topic modelling techniques to identify distinct components of EPU. This database is...

Optimal policy projections (OPPs) offer a flexible way to derive scenario-based policy recommendations. This note describes how to calculate OPPs for a simple textbook New Keynesian model and provides illustrations for various examples. It also demonstrates the versatility of the approach by...

We argue that the present crisis and stalling economy continuing since 2007 have clear origins, namely in the delusionary belief in the merits of policies based on a “perpetual money machine” type of thinking. Indeed, we document strong evidence that, since the early 1980s, consumption has...

How should monetary policy respond to changes in financial conditions? In this paper we consider a simple model where firms are subject to idiosyncratic shocks which may force them to default on their debt. Firms’ assets and liabilities are denominated in nominal terms and predetermined when...

Global potential output growth has been flagging. At 2.5 percent in 2013-17, post-crisis potential growth is 0.5 percentage point below its longer-term average and 0.9 percentage point below its average a decade ago. Compared with a decade ago, potential growth has declined 0.8 percentage point...

How important is the effect of the interest rate Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) on the severity of the U.S. Great Recession? We tackle this question using an incomplete markets New Keynesian model, with a ZLB on the nominal interest rate and a borrowing constraint tied to asset price. We solve the model...

The current economic condition of the world economies presents an unusual number of aspects. While inflation is low as is unemployment, wage stagnation and wild increases in asset prices, especially equities, are incongruent. Yet central banks have massively increased liquidity and this has...

A VAR model estimated on U.S. data before and after 1980 documents systematic differences in the response of short- and long-term interest rates, corporate bond spreads and durable spending to news TFP shocks. Interest rates across the maturity spectrum broadly increase in the pre-1980s and...

The recent financial crisis has shown that liquidity fluctuations in asset markets can have a large impact on the real economy. Many central banks started unconventional monetary policies in 2008, but we still have little understanding of optimal monetary and fiscal policies in such an...