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Forecasting euro area inflation using targeted predictors : is money coming back?

Falagiarda, Matteo; Sousa, João - 2017

relative to other predictors generally improving in the post-2012 period. An out-of-sample forecasting exercise indicates that …, when monetary and credit aggregates are loaded directly in the forecasting equation, the additional gains over the … and credit variables in forecasting inflation, even if their information content is diluted in a much broader pool of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011637074

Forecasting inflation and tracking monetary policy in the euro area: does national information help?

Cristadoro, Riccardo; Venditti, Fabrizio; Saporito, Giuseppe - 2008

The ECB objective is set in terms of year on year growth rate of the Euro area HICP. Nonetheless, a good deal of attention is given to national data by market analysts when they try to anticipate monetary policy moves. In this paper we use the Generalized Dynamic Factor model to develop a set of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604946

Disagreement among forecasters in G7 countries

Dovern, Jonas; Fritsche, Ulrich; Slacalek, Jiri - 2009

Using the Consensus Economics dataset with individual expert forecasts from G7 countries we investigate determinants of disagreement (crosssectional dispersion of forecasts) about six key economic indicators. Disagreement about real variables (GDP, consumption, investment and unemployment) has a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605128

The role of central bank transparency for guiding private sector forecasts

Ehrmann, Michael; Eijffinger, Sylvester; Fratzscher, Marcel - 2010

There is a broad consensus in the literature that costs of information processing and acquisition may generate costly disagreements in expectations among economic agents, and that central banks may play a central role in reducing such dispersion in expectations. This paper analyses empirically...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605192

Inflation targeting and inflation expectations : evidence for Brazil and Turkey

Altuğ, Sumru; Çakmaklı, Cem - 2014

In this paper, we study the evolution of inflation expectations for two key emerging economies, Brazil and Turkey, using a reduced form model in a state-space framework, where the level of inflation is modeled explicitly. We match the survey-based inflation expectations and inflation targets set...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010337610

The FRBNY Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge : UIG

Amstad, Marlene; Potter, Simon M.; Rich, Robert W. - 2014

Monetary policymakers and long-term investors would benefit greatly from a measure of underlying inflation that uses all relevant information, is available in real time, and forecasts inflation better than traditional underlying inflation measures such as core inflation measures. This paper...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010404156

Disagreement among forecasters in G7 countries

Dovern, Jonas; Fritsche, Ulrich; Slacalek, Jirka - 2009

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010425866

Developing an underlying inflation gauge for China

Amstad, Marlene; Huan, Ye; Ma, Guonan - 2014

information. Finally, when forecasting the headline CPI, our UIG for China outperforms traditional core measures over different …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010412468

Forecasting and policy making

Wieland, Volker; Wolters, Maik H. - 2012

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010394237

Inflation expectations and their role in Eurosystem forecasting

2021

) exploring the role that measures of expectations can play in forecasting inflation. While it is households' and firms' inflation … can play in forecasting inflation, this paper finds that they are indicative for future inflationary developments. When it … bring forecast gains when included in forecasting models and can also inform scenario and risk analysis in projection …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012626673

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