This paper studies the behaviors of uncertainty through the lens of several popular models of expectation formation. The full-information rational expectations model (FIRE) predicts that both the ex ante uncertainty and the variance of ex post forecast errors are equal to the conditional...

Models of microeconomic consumption (including those used in heterogeneous-agent macroeconomic models) typically calibrate the size of income risk to match panel data on household income dynamics. But, for several reasons, what is measured as risk from such data may not correspond to the risk...

This paper examines the magnitude and persistence of the mortgage rate pass-through in response to U.S. monetary policy surprises. The policy surprises are measured by both the surprise changes to the target federal funds rate (the target factor) and surprises in the future direction of the...