This paper assesses the contemporaneous, leading and lagging indicator properties of financial market variables relative to movements in six major developed country currency pairs. As indicator variables changes in various relative asset prices, short-term portfolio flows and currency options...

It is commonly thought that an open economy can accommodate output shocks through either exchange rate or real sector adjustments. We formalise this notion by incorporating labour market rigidities into an “escape clause” model of currency crises. We show that the absence of structural...

This paper focuses on changes in the currency options market’s assessment of likely future exchange rate developments around the times of official interventions in the JPY/USD exchange rate. We estimate the options-implied risk-neutral density functions (RNDs) using daily OTC quotes for...

The financial crisis has highlighted the need for models that can identify counterparty risk exposures and shock transmission processes at the systemic level. We use the euro area financial accounts (flow of funds) data to construct a sector-level network of bilateral balance sheet exposures and...