Failing to account for joint dynamics of credit and asset prices can be hazardous for countercyclical macroprudential policy. We show that composite financial cycles, emphasising expansions and contractions common to credit and asset prices, powerfully predict systemic banking crises. Further,...

In this paper we introduce the general setting of a multivariate time series autoregressive model with stochastic time-varying coefficients and time-varying conditional variance of the error process. This allows modeling VAR dynamics for non-stationary times series and estimation of time varying...

We use financial intraday data to identify monetary policy surprises in the euro area. We find that monetary policy statements and press conferences after European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council meetings convey information that moves the yield curve far out. Moreover, the nature of the...

We study the interaction between monetary policy and labor supply decisions at the household level. We uncover evidence of heterogeneous responses and a strong income effect on labor supply in the left tail of the income distribution, following a monetary policy shock in the US and the UK. That...

I show that the detrending of financial variables with the Hodrick and Prescott (1981, 1997) (HP) and band-pass filters leads to spurious cycles. I find that distortions become especially severe when considering medium-term cycles, i.e., cycles that exceed the duration of regular business...

What drives the strong reaction of financial markets to central bank communication on the days of policy decisions? We highlight the role of two factors that we identify from highfrequency monetary surprises: news on future macroeconomic conditions (Delphic shocks) and news on future monetary...

We use financial intraday data to identify monetary policy surprises in the euro area. We find that monetary policy statements and press conferences after European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council meetings convey information that moves the yield curve far out. Moreover, the nature of the...

We develop a novel method for the identification of monetary policy shocks. By applying natural language processing techniques to documents that Federal Reserve staff prepare in advance of policy decisions, we capture the Fed's information set. Using machine learning techniques, we then predict...

We study the interaction between monetary policy and labour supply decisions at the household level. We uncover evidence of heterogeneous responses and a strong income effect on labour supply in the left tail of the income distribution, following a monetary policy shock in the US and the UK....

We study the interaction between monetary policy and labor supply decisions at the household level. We uncover evidence of heterogeneous responses and a strong income effect on labor supply in the left tail of the income distribution, following a monetary policy shock in the US and the UK. That...