yields' fluctuations and highlight the roles of a tight monetary policy stance and expectations of lower inflation in … negative inflation slope points to higher odds of a recession within a year. An aggressive removal of policy accommodation …

various univariate and multivariate estimates of the real IRG for predicting inflation, real activity and real credit growth …

This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is recognized as a successful forecast targeting … central bank. It is reasonable to expect that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other … margin. An explanation in terms of too high speed of adjustment to the inflation target is supported by the evidence. Norges …

The purpose of the paper is to introduce the framework for decomposing the forecast of headline inflation, obtained by … core inflation. The model for inflation decomposition is a small structural model, set up in state space framework. Kalman … filter procedure is applied to filter the future paths of CPI components, given projected headline inflation obtained by …

monetary and credit aggregates are very often selected among the top predictors of inflation, with their predictive power … and credit variables in forecasting inflation, even if their information content is diluted in a much broader pool of …

The proposition that inflation expectations can be extracted as inflation predictions from the government bond yield … of inflation. Examining the sub-periods separated by the adoption, in 2000, of inflation targeting, we find that the … monetary policy regime shift strengthened the relationship between the yield spread and future inflation. The results suggest …

inflation risk premium slope has been accompanied by a heightened risk of recession, while a lower real-rate risk premium slope …

The term structure of inflation forecasts disagreement in the US can be summarized by two components: disagreement … about the trend inflation, and disagreement about the cyclical inflation. While the former has identical impacts on … forecasting horizons. Only the cyclical inflation disagreement has a significant impact on monetary policy efficacy. High …

-rate projection under inflation targeting: the Norwegian example. Centre for European Policy Studies Working Paper (127), 2006) and …, inflation and output growth, we hardly find any significant differences between forecasts based on the different interest rate …

The link between London interbank interest rates and future inflation in the UK is investigated over a period which … interest rates and future inflation is found to break down after 1985 …