We consider a large trader liquidating a portfolio using a transparent trading venue with price impact and a dark pool with execution uncertainty. The optimal execution strategy uses both venues continuously, with dark pool orders over-/underrepresenting the portfolio size depending on return...

The Multiplicative Ergodic Theorem provides a novel general methodology to analyze rational expectations models with stochastically varying coefficients. The approach is applied for the first time to economics and analyzes the canonical New Keynesian model with a Taylor rule which switches...

We estimate a small-scale nonlinear DSGE model with the zero lower bound (ZLB) of the nominal interest rate for Japan, where the ZLB has constrained the country's monetary policy for a considerably long period. We employ the time iteration with linear interpolation method to solve equilibrium...

This paper estimates a New Keynesian DSGE model with search frictions and monetary rules augmented with different labor market indicators. In accordance with a theoretical literature I find that a central bank reacts to a labor market tightness, employment or unemployment. Posterior odds tests...

We develop and estimate a general equilibrium model to quantitatively assess the effects and welfare implications of central bank transparency. Monetary policy can deviate from active inflation stabilization and agents conduct Bayesian learning about the nature of these deviations. Under...

We employ a money-based early warning model in order to analyse the risk of a low inflation regime in the euro area, Japan and the US. The model specification allows for three different inflation regimes: Low, Medium and High inflation, while state transition probabilities vary over time as a...

We employ a money-based early warning model in order to analyse the risk of a low inflation regime in the Euro Area, Japan and the US. The model specification allows for three different inflation regimes: "Low", "Medium" and "High" inflation, while state transition probabilities vary over time...

In this paper we analyze changes in the Federal Reserve behavior and objectives since the1960s justified by potentially evolving beliefs—through a real-time learning process—aboutthe structure of the economy and shifts in policymakers' preferences in the late 1970s. In addition, we allow for...

We study the bank lending channel in Switzerland over three decades using unbalanced quarterly bank-individual data spanning 1987 to 2016. In contrast to the usual empirical approach, we take an agnostic stance on which bank characteristic drives the heterogenous lending response to interest...

We propose a Bayesian infinite hidden Markov model to estimate time- varying parameters in a vector autoregressive model. The Markov structure allows for heterogeneity over time while accounting for state-persistence. By modelling the transition distribution as a Dirichlet process mixture model,...