Berger, Helge; Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel - 2006
The paper shows that there is a substantial degree of heterogeneity in forecast accuracy among Fed watchers. Based on a … basis points between the best and worst-performers across the sample. This heterogeneity is found to be related to both the … anticipating monetary policy. Moreover, systematic forecaster heterogeneity is economically important as it leads to greater …