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that deflation periods necessarily go hand in hand with recessions. Thus, costs of deflation might be much lower than …
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pronounced before recessions. The results obtained from a panel probit model confirm that the divergence between the Divisia and … the simple sum aggregate has a significant predictive content for recessions in euro area countries. …
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The ability of the term structure (specifically the term spread, or the difference between the long and short ends of the yield curve) to predict economic activity is empirically well-established for the US, but less so for small open economies. The literature emphasizes the role of monetary...
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