slack or oil price fluctuations, motivated by a novel interpretation of the forecasting implications of the workhorse open …

their forecasting properties for the policy rates of the European Central Bank. In this respect the basic rules, results …

their forecasting properties for the policy rates of the European Central Bank. In this respect the basic rules, results …

This paper presents a 16-variable Bayesian VAR forecasting model of the U.S. economy for use in a monetary policy … setting. The variables that comprise the model are selected not only for their effectiveness in forecasting the primary … coincide with those of an augmented New-Keynesian DSGE model. We provide out-of sample forecast evaluations and illustrate the …

decomposition and forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD). This makes it difficult to derive meaningful economic conclusions …-robust approach is proposed to construct estimation and inference. Thirdly, this paper suggests a procedure to derive theory …

the forecast exercise and for the full sample. However, the rational expectations model typically predicts real GDP growth … forecast horizon, while the adaptive learning model predicts better for the outer quarters. …

the assumptions that interest rates remain constant over the forecast horizon, follow a path as expected by market … expectations yielding the highest forecast accuracy to conditioning on constant interest rates yielding the lowest. Yet, when …

aspects of the Great Moderation have improved the forecast accuracy of open-economy models. …