This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is recognized as a successful forecast targeting … superiority of the Bank's forecast cannot be asserted, when compared with genuine ex-ante real time forecasts from an independent …

This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is a successful forecast targeting central bank. It … forecasts, and forecasts from econometric models outside the central bank. We find that the superiority of the bank's forecast …

This paper presents a 16-variable Bayesian VAR forecasting model of the U.S. economy for use in a monetary policy … setting. The variables that comprise the model are selected not only for their effectiveness in forecasting the primary … coincide with those of an augmented New-Keynesian DSGE model. We provide out-of sample forecast evaluations and illustrate the …

matrix and averages model estimates across all data releases. Using standard forecasting and policy models to analyze … monetary authorities' reaction functions, we show that this simple method can improve forecasting performance and provide …

This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is recognized as a successful forecast targeting … superiority of the Bank's forecast cannot be asserted, when compared with genuine ex-ante real time forecasts from an independent … whole sample, which includes a change in the mean of inflation. -- Inflation forecasts ; monetary policy ; forecast …

superior to a simple model selection strategy and also performs better in terms of point forecast evaluation than standard … point forecast combinations …

matrix and averages model estimates across all data releases. Using standard forecasting and policy models to analyze … monetary authorities' reaction functions, we show that this simple method can improve forecasting performance and provide …

decomposition and forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD). This makes it difficult to derive meaningful economic conclusions …-robust approach is proposed to construct estimation and inference. Thirdly, this paper suggests a procedure to derive theory …