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The term structure of expectations
Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Mönch, Emanuel; … - 2021
Economic theory predicts that intertemporal decisions depend critically on expectations about future outcomes. Using the universe of professional survey forecasts for the United States, we document the behavior of the entire term structure of expectations for output growth, inflation, and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660381
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How should large and small countries be represented in a currency union?
Berger, Helge; Mueller, Till - 2004
apparent mismatch between relative economic size and voting rights in the Council. We present a simple model of optimal … representation in a federal central bank addressing this question. Optimal voting weights reflect two opposing forces: the wish to … passive reaction to idiosyncratic national economic shocks. A perfect match between economic size and voting rights is rarely …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261091
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European Monetary Policy and the ECB Rotation Model – Voting Power of the Core Versus the Periphery
Belke, Ansgar Hubertus - 2010
We analyze the ECB Governing Council's voting procedures. The literature has by now discussed numerous aspects of the … rotation model but does not account for many institutional aspects of the voting procedure of the GC. Using the randomization …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013144620
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European monetary policy and the ECB rotation model voting power of the core versus the periphery
Belke, Ansgar; Schnurbein, Barbara von - 2010
We analyze the ECB Governing Council’s voting procedures. The literature has by now discussed numerous aspects of the … rotation model but does not account for many institutional aspects of the voting procedure of the GC. Using the randomization …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010208783
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European Monetary Policy and the ECB Rotation Model : Voting Power of the Core Versus the Periphery
Belke, Ansgar Hubertus - 2010
We analyze the ECB Governing Council's voting procedures. The literature has by now discussed numerous aspects of the … rotation model but does not account for many institutional aspects of the voting procedure of the GC. Using the randomization …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013142850
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DSGE-Modelling: when agents are imperfectly informed
De Grauwe, Paul - 2008
DSGE-models have become important tools of analysis not only in academia but increasingly in the board rooms of central banks. The success of these models has much to do with the coherence of the intellectual framework it provides. The limitations of these models come from the fact that they...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604943
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Animal spirits and monetary policy
De Grauwe, Paul - 2008
We develop a behavioral macroeconomic model in which agents use simple but biased rules to forecast future output and inflation. This model generates endogenous waves of optimism and pessimism (Animal Spirits") that are generated by the correlation of biased beliefs. We contrast the dynamics of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010272308
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Central bank transparency and nonlinear learning dynamics
Eusepi, Stefano (contributor) - 2008
Central bank communication plays an important role in shaping market participants’ expectations. This paper studies a simple nonlinear model of monetary policy in which agents have incomplete information about the economic environment. It shows that agents’ learning and the dynamics of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003781685
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Information flows and aggregate persistence
Kryvtsov, Oleksiy - 2009
Models with imperfect information that generate persistent monetary nonneutrality predominantly rely on assumptions leading to substantial heterogeneity of information across price-setters. This paper develops a quantitative general equilibrium model in which the degree of heterogeneity of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003823147
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Fiscal Foundations of Inflation : Imperfect Knowledge
Eusepi, Stefano - 2013
This paper proposes a theory of the fiscal foundations of inflation based on imperfect knowledge and learning. The theory is similar in spirit to, but distinct from, unpleasant monetarist arithmetic and the fiscal theory of the price level. Because the assumption of imperfect knowledge breaks...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013074021