The transcript of a panel discussion marking the fiftieth anniversary of John Muth's "Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements" (Econometrica 1961). The panel consists of Michael Lovell, Robert Lucas, Dale Mortensen, Robert Shiller, and Neil Wallace. The discussion is moderated by...

This paper examines a previously overlooked episode in the history of the Federal Reserve involving the relationship between expectations at the outset of WWII regarding the possibility of German victory in Europe and its economic implications for the USA and Western Hemisphere. And this, as...