The paper evaluates the 24-month ahead inflation forecasting performance of various indicators of underlying inflation … and structural models. The inflation forecast errors resulting from model misspecification are larger than the errors …) overperform other measures over the monetary policy horizon and are leading indicators of headline inflation. Trimmed means …

Over the past two decades, U.S. core PCE goods and services inflation have evolved differently. Against the backdrop of … global concerns of low inflation, we use this trend as motivation to develop a bottom-up model of U.S. inflation. We find … that domestic forces play a larger role relative to foreign factors in influencing core services inflation, while foreign …

This paper investigates the changing behavior of inflation expectations in response to the macroeconomic and policy … environment. Using a panel of professional forecasters covering thirteen years of inflation targeting period from Turkey, we … present evidence on the behavioral shifts in the inflation expectations associated with evolving macroeconomic and policy …

index of monetary conditions; dynamic forecasts of inflation; and the relation between inflation and the output gap …

This paper analyzes the performance of central banks in 27 inflation targeting countries by examining their success in … achieving their explicit inflation targets. For this purpose, we decompose the inflation gap, the difference between actual … inflation and inflation target, into predictable and unpredictable components. We argue that the central banks are successful if …

applied to quarterly and monthly US inflation in an empirical study. We find that the persistence of quarterly inflation has … and density forecasts for monthly US inflation …

Monetary policymakers in advanced transition economies such as Poland are increasingly interested in how inflation … responds to changes in policy instruments and other economic forces. In this paper, measures of underlying CPI inflation based … economic variables is then studied via Granger causality tests and impulse responses and a multivariate model of CPI inflation …

level - for predicting inflation in India. Using quarterly data on manufacturing inflation from 1982 to 2007, we find that … the real money gap is a significant predictor of inflation in india. Our results show that this variable is a better … predictor of future inflation at quarterly horizon than the deviation of broad money growth from its target for the whole sample …

In this paper we analyze whether inflation targeting is feasible in Poland. There are at least three prerequisites for … successful inflation targeting: 1) central bank independence, 2) a high degree of central bank accountability, transparency, and … communication to the public, and 3) a predictable and stable relationship between inflation and the instruments of monetary policy …

useful information about variables such as commodity prices which matter for aggregate demand and thus inflation. Given this …