We study identiÞcation in a class of three-equation monetary models. We argue that these models are typically not identiÞed. For any given exactly identiffed model, we provide an algorithm that generates a class of equivalent models that have the same reduced form. We use our algorithm to...

We show theoretically that inflation disagreement drives a wedge between real and nominal yields and raises their levels and volatilities. We demonstrate empirically that an inflation disagreement increase of one standard deviation raises real and nominal yields and their volatilities,...

This paper studies the effect of FOMC announcements on the dynamics of heterogeneous beliefs. The open interest of options decreases significantly after announcements, implying the associated high trading volume comes from unwinding positions with less disagreement. To measure this effect, I...

We show that inflation disagreement, not just expected inflation, has an impact on nominal interest rates. In contrast to expected inflation, which mainly affects the wedge between real and nominal yields, inflation disagreement affects nominal yields predominantly through its impact on the real...

The links between real and nominal bond risk premia and macroeconomic dynamics are explored analytically and quantitatively in a model with nominal rigidities and monetary policy. The interest-rate policy rule becomes a restriction linking real and nominal risk premia through endogenous...

It is clear by now that pure exchange models are useless. For two reasons. First, because exchange is the other side of specialization in production, and, second, because a direct exchange of goods does not take place in the monetary economy. The decisive drawback of conventional exchange...

We study identification in a class of three-equation monetary models. We argue that these models are typically not identified. For any given exactly identified model, we provide an algorithm that generates a class of equivalent models that have the same reduced form. In our first two examples we...

Trade protection remains a prominent feature of the current world economy and likely has significant effects on industries and macroeconomies. In this paper a particular type of policy, price supports, is analyzed in a two-country, dynamic, general equilibrium model. This model brings new...

Exchange-rate based stabilizations, while useful in accelerating the disinflation process, typically lead to overvalued exchange rates and large current account deficits. These factors, in turn, make it difficult to sustain exchange rate pegs, placing heavy demands upon monetary policy to...

This paper investigates how the stock market reacts to the Federal Reserve's ability to tame inflation through rate hikes. Since investors do not directly observe the speed at which rate hikes reduce inflation, they need to learn about it by observing inflation prints. When investors realize...