The rate of inflation in the US has declined from an average of 4.5% in the period 1960-79 to an average of 3.6% in 1980-98. Between those two periods, the standard deviations of inflation and the output gap have also declined. These facts can be attributed to a shift in central bank...

The textbook New Keynesian (NK) model implies that the labor share is procyclical conditional on a monetary policy shock. We present evidence that a monetary policy tightening robustly increased the labor share and decreased real wages during the Great Moderation period in the US, the euro area,...

Some recent studies have suggested constructing a Monetary Conditions Index (or MCI) to serve as an indicator of monetary policy stance. The central banks of Canada, Sweden,and Norway all construct an MCI and (to varying degrees) use it in conducting monetary policy. Empirically, an MCI is...

This paper explains why the overall stance of monetary policy is effected by both interest rates and the exchange rate, and hence why a Monetary Conditions Indicator can provide useful information about the stance of policy. Three output gap equations estimated in this paper reveal that the real...

The topic covered in the paper is the performance of different monetary policy rules thought to be used as a guidline in pratical policymaking. In this respect, different rules are estimated using alternative econometrics techniques. A comparative analysis based on the ability of the rules in...

This paper considers a prototypical monetary business cycle model for the U.S. economy, in which the equilibrium is undetermined if monetary policy is "inactive". In previous multivariate studies it has been common practice to restrict parameter estimates to values for which the equilibrium is...

The effects of the unconventional monetary policy (UMP) measures undertaken by the U.S. Federal Reserve (and other major central banks) remain a crucial topic for research. This paper investigates their effects on the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations, a key dimension of UMP that has...

A large literature with canonical New Keynesian models has established that the Fed's policy change from a passive to an active response to inflation led to U.S. macro-economic stability after the Great Inflation of the 1970s. We revisit this view by estimating a staggered price model with trend...

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy-maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in...

We introduce machine learning in the context of central banking and policy analyses. Our aim is to give an overview broad enough to allow the reader to place machine learning within the wider range of statistical modelling and computational analyses, and provide an idea of its scope and...