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Monetary policy analysis in real-time: Vintage combination from a real-time dataset

Altavilla, Carlo; Ciccarelli, Matteo - 2011

matrix and averages model estimates across all data releases. Using standard forecasting and policy models to analyze … monetary authorities' reaction functions, we show that this simple method can improve forecasting performance and provide …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274753

Real-time Data for Norway: Challenges for Monetary Policy

Bernhardsen, Tom; Eitrheim, Øyvind; Jore, Anne Sofie; … - 2004

National accounts data are always revised. Not only recent data, but also figures dating many years back can be revised substantially. This means that there is a danger that an important part of the central bank's information set is flawed for a long period of time. In this paper we present a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295653

DSGE model forecasting : rational expectations vs. adaptive learning

Warne, Anders - 2023

This paper compares within-sample and out-of-sample fit of a DSGE model with rational expectations to a model with adaptive learning. The Galí, Smets and Wouters model is the chosen laboratory using quarterly real-time euro area data vintages, covering 2001Q1-2019Q4. The adaptive learning model...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013492913

Disagreement among forecasters in G7 countries

Dovern, Jonas; Fritsche, Ulrich; Slacalek, Jiri - 2009

Using the Consensus Economics dataset with individual expert forecasts from G7 countries we investigate determinants of disagreement (crosssectional dispersion of forecasts) about six key economic indicators. Disagreement about real variables (GDP, consumption, investment and unemployment) has a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605128

The role of central bank transparency for guiding private sector forecasts

Ehrmann, Michael; Eijffinger, Sylvester; Fratzscher, Marcel - 2010

There is a broad consensus in the literature that costs of information processing and acquisition may generate costly disagreements in expectations among economic agents, and that central banks may play a central role in reducing such dispersion in expectations. This paper analyses empirically...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605192

Disagreement among forecasters in G7 countries

Dovern, Jonas; Fritsche, Ulrich; Slacalek, Jirka - 2009

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010425866

Forecasting and policy making

Wieland, Volker; Wolters, Maik H. - 2012

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010394237

Inflation decomposition model : application to Macedonian inflation

Andonova, Danica Unevska - 2018

results of the model's forecasting performance suggest that this model can be a useful analytical tool in the process of … to MAKPAM and enriches the set of tools for forecasting and monetary policy analysis in NBRM. In this paper we highlight …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011926820

Forecasting euro area inflation using targeted predictors : is money coming back?

Falagiarda, Matteo; Sousa, João - 2017

relative to other predictors generally improving in the post-2012 period. An out-of-sample forecasting exercise indicates that …, when monetary and credit aggregates are loaded directly in the forecasting equation, the additional gains over the … and credit variables in forecasting inflation, even if their information content is diluted in a much broader pool of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011637074

The accuracy of a forecast targeting central bank

Falch, Nina Skrove; Nymoen, Ragnar - 2011

This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is recognized as a successful forecast targeting central bank. It is reasonable to expect that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other forecasts, both "naiv͏̈e" forecasts, and forecasts...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008936407

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