are consistent with the behavior of inflation. We label these deviations the output gap. In order to pin-down the features … of the model, we evaluate the accuracy of real-time inflation forecasts from different model specifications. The version … that forecasts inflation best implies that after the 2011 sovereign debt crisis the output gap in the euro area has been …

A number of academic studies suggest that from the mid-1990s onwards there were changes in the link between inflation … structural relationship between inflation and output, as opposed to a change in the size and nature of the shocks hitting the … inflation and resource utilization and its dependence on the nature and size of the shocks. Our analysis suggests that the …

A number of academic studies suggest that from the mid-1990s onwards there were changes in the link between inflation … structural relationship between inflation and output, as opposed to a change in the size and nature of the shocks hitting the … inflation and resource utilization and its dependence on the nature and size of the shocks. Our analysis suggests that the …

Despite closing output gaps and tightening labor markets, inflation has remained low inthe euro area. Based on an … augmented Phillips Curve framework, we find that thisphenomenon-sometimes attributed to low global inflation-has been primarily … causedby a remarkable persistence of inflation, keeping it low despite the reduction in slack. Thisfeature is shown to be …

We offer a novel methodology for assessing the quality of inflation reports. In contrast to the existing literature …, which mostly evaluates the formal quality of these reports, we evaluate their economic content by comparing inflation … coding of inflation reports to describe inflation factors communicated by central banks in real time. Regarding the latter …

From 2013 up to the launch of the ECB’s strategy review in January 2020, inflation in the euro area was low and over …-predicted. This low inflation during the years 2013-19 can be attributed to a combination of interconnected factors. Cyclical … developments account for a substantial share of the fall in underlying inflation, mainly in the first part of the low inflation …

Recent energy and food price surges, in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have exacerbated inflation … pressuresthat are unusually high by the standards of the past two decades. High and rising inflation has prompted many emerging …. Inflation is expected to ease back towards targets over the medium-term as recent shocks unwind, but the 1970s experience is a …

Macroeconomic conditions are among the key determinants of the inflation outlook. This paper studies how business … cycles affect the conditional distribution of euro-area inflation forecasts. Using a quantile regression approach, I estimate … the conditional distribution of inflation to assess the impact of business cycle conditions over time and the possible …

A regime shift towards increased inflation expectations is credited with jumpstarting the recovery from the Great … Depression in the United States. Germany experienced a recovery as fast and strong in the 1930s. What role did inflation … expectations play at the start of this remarkable economic upturn? To answer this question, we study inflation expectations in …

One of the most surprising features of the long current expansion has been the decline in price inflation through the … late 1990s. Some observers interpret the decline as evidence of a permanent change in the relationship between inflation … - most notably, a decrease in import prices - can account for the low inflation rates in recent years …