We estimate the marginal effects of identified components of global liquidity on 43 real economies. To this end, we employ global public and private credit components of Herwartz, Ochsner, and Rohloff (2021) in factor-augmented vector-autoregressions to trace credit shocks through the real...

The growth and deepening of financial markets entailed the expectation that the bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission would lose its importance. The paper explains why, on the contrary, the banking sector has become a major locus of origination and amplification of macro-financial...

This paper studies the behaviors of uncertainty through the lens of several popular models of expectation formation. The full-information rational expectations model (FIRE) predicts that both the ex ante uncertainty and the variance of ex post forecast errors are equal to the conditional...